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← People and their mental models

Bill Gurley's mental models

2 claims Bill Gurley made fit 2 mental models. Most often: Power laws, Second-order thinking. Everything they said here.

Models they name

Their own words name the idea.

Power laws

In many things a few cases account for most of the result, so the average misleads and the outlier decides.

Others who think with this model

Nassim Nicholas TalebAlbert-László BarabásiBen CarlsonBrian PotterJamie DimonMike Kriegerand 3 more

Open the model page

Investors have collectively absorbed the idea of increasing returns and power laws, and that belief is what makes them take ever more risk.

  1. Bill Gurley General partner at Benchmark Capital for over two decades the investor community writ large has slowly become aware of and believes it strongly in increasing returns and power laws. And so over time, if they all believe that, they're going to be more willing to invest on the come and take risk. Mental Models That Change How You Think | Bill Gurleyyoutube.com · 9 Jun 2026 · 0:26:01 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    Their wordsthe investor community writ large has slowly become aware of and believes it strongly in increasing returns and power laws. And so over time, if they all believe that, they're going to be more willing to invest on the come and take risk.

    Where this was said

    Watch from 0:26:01 plays here

    ↗Mental Models That Change How You Think | Bill Gurleyyoutube.com

    9 Jun 2026 · video · 1h 01m · spoken · machine transcript

Models we see in what they say

Our reading: their claim applies the idea without naming it. The claim is theirs; filing it here is ours.

Second-order thinking

Ask "and then what?": follow a decision past its first effect to the ones that come after.

Others who think with this model

Shane ParrishCharlie MungerIan SilberJustin JacksonSteve CoastZvi Mowshowitz

Open the model page

Optimising a single metric is a trap, because the second-order consequences of the change only surface much later.

  1. Bill Gurley General partner at Benchmark Capital for over two decades you got to be really conscious of the consequence and not get too deterministic about a single metric or a single variable and know what's important and what's on top. Mental Models That Change How You Think | Bill Gurleyyoutube.com · 9 Jun 2026 · 0:01:49 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    Their wordsyou got to be really conscious of the consequence and not get too deterministic about a single metric or a single variable and know what's important and what's on top.

    Where this was said

    Watch from 0:01:49 plays here

    ↗Mental Models That Change How You Think | Bill Gurleyyoutube.com

    9 Jun 2026 · video · 1h 01m · spoken · machine transcript