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At the centre You do not have to believe in AGI to believe in the timelines on which the United States wins the semiconductor race. Holds DPDylan Patel Read this korrent →

• Same subject: AGI A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. Holds AIAlex Imas
• Same subject: AGI A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so continual learning is what superintelligence should mean. Holds ISIlya Sutskever
• Same subject: AGI A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted. Holds GMGary Marcus
• Same subject: AGI A poor country should prioritise owning a piece of AI over retraining its workers, but it should not bet everything on that. Holds PTPhil Trammell
• Same subject: AGI AGI is not a finish line to be crossed but a smear with width, and we are already standing on it. Holds Paul Graham
• Same subject: America, semiconductors Building fabs in America does not reduce dependence on Taiwan: without Hsinchu, TSMC's Arizona plant would stop producing within a couple of years. Holds DPDylan Patel
• Same subject: America, semiconductors Completely in-sourcing semiconductor manufacturing to the United States is possible, and it would take a decade and a trillion dollars. Holds DPDylan Patel
• Same subject: America, semiconductors The largest hole in America's GPU export controls was never physical smuggling but renting: ByteDance runs over 500,000 GPUs it does not own. Holds DPDylan Patel