You do not have to believe in AGI to believe in the timelines on which the United States wins the semiconductor race.

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• Building fabs in America does not reduce dependence on Taiwan: without Hsinchu, TSMC's Arizona plant would stop producing within a couple of years. DPDylan Patel3 Feb 2025Americasemiconductors
• Completely in-sourcing semiconductor manufacturing to the United States is possible, and it would take a decade and a trillion dollars. DPDylan Patel3 Feb 2025Americasemiconductors
• The largest hole in America's GPU export controls was never physical smuggling but renting: ByteDance runs over 500,000 GPUs it does not own. DPDylan Patel3 Feb 2025Americasemiconductors
• A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. AIAlex Imas4 Jun 2026AGI
• A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so continual learning is what superintelligence should mean. ISIlya Sutskever25 Nov 2025AGI

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