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← The technical core of the AI industry lacks a high hit rate for predicting model success in real-world usage.

17 connected korrents · 15 moments from 18 Mar 2024 to 17 Oct 2026.

Everything filed under scaling laws scaling laws Everything filed under Anthropic Anthropic Everything filed under OpenAI OpenAI Everything filed under humility humility Everything filed under LLMs LLMs Everything filed under coding agents coding agents Everything filed under design design Everything filed under AI and science AI and science Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: The technical core of the AI industry lacks a high hit rate for predicting model success in real-world usage. The technical core of the AI industrylacks a high hit rate for predicting modelsuccess in real-world usage. Last stated today 17 Oct 2026 NL Nathan Lambert — holds since 2026-10-17 — tap for who they are Same subject: The competitiveness of the AI model-making industry is uncertain. — tap to centre the map on it The competitiveness of the AImodel-making industry is uncertain. Last stated 2 weeks ago 1 Oct 2026 NS Noah Smith — holds since 2026-10-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: The competitiveness of the AI modeling industry is unknown. — tap to centre the map on it The competitiveness of the AImodeling industry is unknown. Last stated 2 weeks ago 30 Sept 2026 NS Noah Smith — holds since 2026-09-30 — tap for who they are Same subject: The one safe bet about AI is that models will improve, so what a company has to build is an organisation that gets better as models get better. — tap to centre the map on it The one safe bet about AI is thatmodels will improve, so what acompany has to build is anorganisation that gets better asmodels get better. Last stated a year ago 16 Oct 2025 DF Dylan Field — holds since 2025-10-16 — tap for who they are Same subject: The trouble with AI as a development tool is that it is overconfident in what it delivers, and its hit rate is nowhere near good enough. — tap to centre the map on it The trouble with AI as a developmenttool is that it is overconfident inwhat it delivers, and its hit rateis nowhere near good enough. Last stated 7 months ago 11 Mar 2026 JK Jeff Kaplan — holds since 2026-03-11 — tap for who they are Same subject: Consumer AI that is right 90% of the time delights people; industrial AI that is right 90% of the time is 100% dissatisfaction. — tap to centre the map on it Consumer AI that is right 90% of thetime delights people; industrial AIthat is right 90% of the time is100% dissatisfaction. Last stated 9 months ago 8 Jan 2026 JH Jensen Huang — holds since 2026-01-08 — tap for who they are Same subject: On any given problem an AI tool succeeds maybe one or two percent of the time; the headline results are what running it at scale and picking the winners looks like. — tap to centre the map on it On any given problem an AI toolsucceeds maybe one or two percent ofthe time; the headline results arewhat running it at scale and pickingthe winners looks like. Last stated 7 months ago 20 Mar 2026 TT Terence Tao — holds since 2026-03-20 — tap for who they are Same subject: There will be no overnight intelligence explosion, because a model's best work takes so much test-time compute that time itself is the bottleneck. — tap to centre the map on it There will be no overnightintelligence explosion, because amodel's best work takes so muchtest-time compute that time itselfis the bottleneck. Last stated 4 months ago 26 Jun 2026 NB Noam Brown — holds since 2026-06-26 — tap for who they are Same subject: More AI models that deliver top-tier performance at lower cost are needed. — tap to centre the map on it More AI models that deliver top-tierperformance at lower cost areneeded. Last stated a month ago 10 Sept 2026 KD Kent C. Dodds — holds since 2026-09-10 — tap for who they are Same subject: "Scaling" was powerful because it was one word: naming a research direction is what tells a whole field what to do next. — tap to centre the map on it "Scaling" was powerful because itwas one word: naming a researchdirection is what tells a wholefield what to do next. Last stated 11 months ago 25 Nov 2025 IS Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are Same subject: A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number. — tap to centre the map on it A benchmark result should bereported under a stated budget, oras a curve against test-time compute— never as a single number. Last stated 4 months ago 26 Jun 2026 NB Noam Brown — holds since 2026-06-26 — tap for who they are Same subject: A lab should spend most of its compute on research rather than on building the next model, because research is where the tenfold yearly efficiency gains come from. — tap to centre the map on it A lab should spend most of itscompute on research rather than onbuilding the next model, becauseresearch is where the tenfold yearlyefficiency gains come from. Last stated 7 months ago 13 Mar 2026 DP Dylan Patel — holds since 2026-03-13 — tap for who they are Same subject: A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. — tap to centre the map on it A startup should not begin life as anonprofit and bolt a for-profit armon later, whatever OpenAI's ownhistory suggests. Last stated 3 years ago 18 Mar 2024 SA Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers. — tap to centre the map on it Advertising was a necessary phasefor the internet but a momentaryindustry, and an AI people pay foris better because they know theanswers are not influenced byadvertisers. Last stated 3 years ago 18 Mar 2024 SA Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: Agent containment will be one of the most important priorities for any AI infra company. — tap to centre the map on it Agent containment will be one of themost important priorities for any AIinfra company. Last stated 3 days ago 14 Oct 2026 GR Guillermo Rauch — holds since 2026-10-14 — tap for who they are Same subject: "I don't know" becomes a kind of superpower when you can work with Claude Code to figure things out. — tap to centre the map on it "I don't know" becomes a kind ofsuperpower when you can work withClaude Code to figure things out. Last stated 7 months ago 19 Mar 2026 KP Kris Puckett — holds since 2026-03-19 — tap for who they are Same subject: A benchmark that ranks Claude Code last while it stays first in use is measuring the wrong thing, and has been for a year. — tap to centre the map on it A benchmark that ranks Claude Codelast while it stays first in use ismeasuring the wrong thing, and hasbeen for a year. Last stated a month ago 3 Sept 2026 DR Dax Raad — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: A skill is a set of repeatable, specific instructions that augments what Claude Code can do. — tap to centre the map on it A skill is a set of repeatable,specific instructions that augmentswhat Claude Code can do. Last stated 7 months ago 19 Mar 2026 KP Kris Puckett — holds since 2026-03-19 — tap for who they are
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At the centre The technical core of the AI industry lacks a high hit rate for predicting model success in real-world usage. Last stated 17 Oct 2026 · today Holds Nathan Lambert Read this korrent →