The moment one cause looks far better than every other on thin information is exactly the moment it most needs sceptical investigation.

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Our reading — they may agree, disagree or merely touch the same thing. Closest first: a shared subject counts for most, then how near the wording is.

• Occasionally suspending your trust in everyone and digging into one question as deeply as you can is the single most formative thing you can do for how you think. HKHolden Karnofsky23 Nov 2021similar wording
• Give where there is strong evidence that donations do a lot of good, rather than where weak evidence suggests they might do far more. HKHolden Karnofsky18 Aug 2011similar wording
• Skepticism about a new technology only works if it is total enough to be turned on itself, which is what forces you to stay curious. MFMartin Fowler7 Apr 2026similar wording
• The deeper anyone digs into a charity's cost-effectiveness estimate, the more unwarranted optimism they find, so the right prior on giving is a sceptical one. HKHolden Karnofsky18 Aug 2011similar wording
• Doing PR before you have evidence customers want the thing is risky, because the publicity creates a sunk cost that makes the team see a failing product through. ACAlbert Cheng5 Oct 2025similar wording

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