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Tim Urban

Tim Urban

@tim-urban · 25 positions · On ppll ↗

Writer and illustrator behind Wait But Why, a long-form blog of stick-figure-illustrated explainers on science, technology and society, and author of the book What's Our Problem?

Tim Urban did not write this page.

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9 of Tim Urban's claims fit 2 mental models. Most often: First principles, S-curves and diminishing returns.

Models they name

Their own words name the idea.

First principles

Reason up from what is known to be true, not from what is usually done or said.

Used by 21 others

Reasoning from first principles means gathering only what one knows to be true and building a conclusion from it.

  1. Tim Urban Writer and illustrator behind Wait But Why A scientist gathers together only what he or she knows to be true—the first principles—and uses those as the puzzle pieces with which to construct a conclusion. The Cook and the Chef: Musk’s Secret Saucewaitbutwhy.com · 6 Nov 2015All korrents from this piece
    A scientist gathers together only what he or she knows to be true—the first principles—and uses those as the puzzle pieces with which to construct a conclusion.

Reasoning from first principles means taking the basic raw ingredients as the building blocks and working upward from them.

  1. Tim Urban Writer and illustrator behind Wait But Why The chef reasons from first principles, and for the chef, the first principles are raw edible ingredients. Those are her puzzle pieces, her building blocks, and she works her way upwards from there, using her experience, her instincts, and her taste buds. The Cook and the Chef: Musk’s Secret Saucewaitbutwhy.com · 6 Nov 2015All korrents from this piece
    The chef reasons from first principles, and for the chef, the first principles are raw edible ingredients. Those are her puzzle pieces, her building blocks, and she works her way upwards from there, using her experience, her instincts, and her taste buds.

A person who works from a recipe, even an innovative one, starts from something that already exists.

  1. Tim Urban Writer and illustrator behind Wait But Why But what all of these cooks have in common is their starting point is something that already exists. Even the innovative cook is still making an iteration of a burger, a pizza, and a cake. The Cook and the Chef: Musk’s Secret Saucewaitbutwhy.com · 6 Nov 2015All korrents from this piece
    But what all of these cooks have in common is their starting point is something that already exists. Even the innovative cook is still making an iteration of a burger, a pizza, and a cake.

Conventional wisdom lags behind reality, so someone who looks at the present directly can act on information others have not yet been given permission to act on.

  1. Tim Urban Writer and illustrator behind Wait But Why Conventional wisdom is slow to move, and there’s significant lag time between when something becomes reality and when conventional wisdom is revised to reflect that reality. And by the time it does, reality has moved on to something else. But chefs don’t pay attention to that, reasoning instead using their eyes and ears and experience. By ignoring conventional wisdom in favor of simply looking at the present for what it really is and staying up-to-date with the facts of the world as they change in real-time—in spite of what conventional wisdom has to say—the chef can act on information the rest of us haven’t been given permission to act on yet. The Cook and the Chef: Musk’s Secret Saucewaitbutwhy.com · 6 Nov 2015All korrents from this piece
    Conventional wisdom is slow to move, and there’s significant lag time between when something becomes reality and when conventional wisdom is revised to reflect that reality. And by the time it does, reality has moved on to something else. But chefs don’t pay attention to that, reasoning instead using their eyes and ears and experience. By ignoring conventional wisdom in favor of simply looking at the present for what it really is and staying up-to-date with the facts of the world as they change in real-time—in spite of what conventional wisdom has to say—the chef can act on information the rest of us haven’t been given permission to act on yet.

Conventional wisdom assumes things are the way they are for a good reason, and history repeatedly proves status quo dogma wrong.

  1. Tim Urban Writer and illustrator behind Wait But Why Conventional wisdom worships the status quo and always assumes that everything is the way it is for a good reason—and history is one long record of status quo dogma being proven wrong again and again, every time some chef comes around and changes things. The Cook and the Chef: Musk’s Secret Saucewaitbutwhy.com · 6 Nov 2015All korrents from this piece
    Conventional wisdom worships the status quo and always assumes that everything is the way it is for a good reason—and history is one long record of status quo dogma being proven wrong again and again, every time some chef comes around and changes things.

If a chain of reasoning rests on a wrong inherited recipe, the conclusions built on top of it will be just as wrong.

  1. Tim Urban Writer and illustrator behind Wait But Why And if the tenets of that church don’t truly resonate with you or reflect the current reality of the world—if it turns out that you’ve been working off of the wrong recipe—then whatever conclusions have been built on top of it will be just as wrong. As demonstrated by the flood geologists, a reasoning chain is only as strong as its weakest link. The Cook and the Chef: Musk’s Secret Saucewaitbutwhy.com · 6 Nov 2015All korrents from this piece
    And if the tenets of that church don’t truly resonate with you or reflect the current reality of the world—if it turns out that you’ve been working off of the wrong recipe—then whatever conclusions have been built on top of it will be just as wrong. As demonstrated by the flood geologists, a reasoning chain is only as strong as its weakest link.

Dogma, unlike first-principles reasoning, is not customized to the believer or meant to be critiqued and adjusted as things change.

  1. Tim Urban Writer and illustrator behind Wait But Why Dogma, unlike first principles reasoning, isn’t customized to the believer or her environment and isn’t meant to be critiqued and adjusted as things change. The Cook and the Chef: Musk’s Secret Saucewaitbutwhy.com · 6 Nov 2015All korrents from this piece
    Dogma, unlike first principles reasoning, isn’t customized to the believer or her environment and isn’t meant to be critiqued and adjusted as things change.

S-curves and diminishing returns

Most growth slows as it matures; the question is whether the curve is flattening or something new is restocking it.

Used by 27 others

Technological progress looks smooth and exponential from a distance but is actually made of individual S-curves up close.

  1. Tim Urban Writer and illustrator behind Wait But Why If you zoom out on a story of technology, you usually see a big exponential curve. But if you look at the curve up close, you see that it's wavy, made of S-curves. All My Thoughts After 40 Hours in the Vision Prowaitbutwhy.com · 9 Feb 2024All korrents from this piece
    If you zoom out on a story of technology, you usually see a big exponential curve. But if you look at the curve up close, you see that it's wavy, made of S-curves.