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Nassim Nicholas Taleb

What Nassim Nicholas Taleb thinks about humility

@nassim-taleb · 38 positions · On ppll ↗

Former option trader and risk analyst, now a distinguished professor at NYU. Author of the Incerto essay series, including The Black Swan and Fooled by Randomness.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb did not write this page.

We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording. Their own site. Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it. Or tell us what is wrong here.

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Only Nassim Nicholas Taleb on humility. See everyone on humility

7 dated positions, c. 2007 to 2008, in their own words. Our reading of what Nassim Nicholas Taleb has said — not written or endorsed by them.

  1. Our readingIn complex decisions exposed to fat tails, decisions should not rest on statistically based claims

    Their wordsHere is where your limits are. Do not base your decisions on statistically based claims.

    ↗The Fourth Quadrant: A Map of the Limits of Statistics (Edge, 2008)edge.org 2nd of 8 in this piece

  3. Our readingEmpirical knowledge of rare events’ role is inversely proportional to their impact

    Their wordsIf small probability events carry large impacts, and (at the same time) these small probability events are more difficult to compute from past data itself, then: our empirical knowledge about the potential contribution—or role—of rare events (probability × consequence) is inversely proportional to their impact.

    ↗The Fourth Quadrant: A Map of the Limits of Statistics (Edge, 2008)edge.org 3rd of 8 in this piece

  5. Our readingOnly fools optimize, since a simple model error can blow through their capital

    Their wordsOnly fools (such as Banks) optimize, not realizing that a simple model error can blow through their capital (as it just did).

    ↗The Fourth Quadrant: A Map of the Limits of Statistics (Edge, 2008)edge.org 6th of 8 in this piece

  7. Our readingExperts do not know what they do not know

    Their wordsThe problem with experts is that they do not know what they do not know.

    ↗The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Random House, 2007)archive.org All 8 from this book

  9. Our readingWe are demonstrably arrogant about what we think we know

    Their wordsFirst, we are demonstrably arrogant about what we think we know.

    ↗The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Random House, 2007)archive.org All 8 from this book

  11. Our readingPlatonicity makes us think we understand more than we do

    Their wordsPlatonicity is what makes us think that we understand more than we actually do

    ↗The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Random House, 2007)archive.org All 8 from this book

  13. Our readingWe tend to think we know a little more than we actually do

    Their wordsWe certainly know a lot, but we have a built-in tendency to think that we know a little bit more than we actually do

    ↗The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Random House, 2007)archive.org All 8 from this book