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Lagging Edge will have a Permanent Glut

Doug O'Laughlin · 4 Sept 2025

A change of mind in this piece

Chips made on older process nodes have to get more expensive, because a new fab cannot make money selling at prices a fully depreciated fab set.

The COVID super-cycle, plus a new China supply line that does not care about capacity economics, points to a forever glut.

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  1. The COVID super-cycle, plus a new China supply line that does not care about capacity economics, points to a forever glut.
    Reality: the lagging edge took price in a temporary market upturn; now we are reverting to the mean.

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