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← People and their mental models

Keyu Jin's mental models

3 claims Keyu Jin made fit 3 mental models. Most often: Incentives, Second-order thinking, Trade-offs. Everything they said here.

Models they name

Their own words name the idea.

Incentives

Look at what people are rewarded for; it explains more behaviour than what they say, your own included.

Used by 84 others

The Chinese state does not suppress the private sector; local officials' incentives make them work hard to help the best private companies succeed.

  1. Keyu Jin Economist specialising in China's economy Another big misunderstanding, and a fundamental one, is that people somehow think that the state suppresses the private sector. It’s not at all as simple as that. For the most part, if we look at the local government’s incentive system, they want to help the best, private companies, which are the most promising, because it makes them look good. Keyu Jin: China's Economy, Tariffs, Trade, Trump, Communism & Capitalism | Lex Fridman Podcast #477youtube.com · 13 Aug 2025 · 0:43:48 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    Another big misunderstanding, and a fundamental one, is that people somehow think that the state suppresses the private sector. It’s not at all as simple as that. For the most part, if we look at the local government’s incentive system, they want to help the best, private companies, which are the most promising, because it makes them look good.

Models we see in what they say

Our reading: their claim applies the idea without naming it. The claim is theirs; filing it here is ours.

Second-order thinking

Ask "and then what?": follow a decision past its first effect to the ones that come after.

Used by 86 others

Economic coercion has a half-life: use your leverage once and it is much weaker the second time, because everyone starts substituting away from you.

  1. Keyu Jin Economist specialising in China's economy And what’s more, you use your leverage once, and that leverage has a half-life. It becomes a lot less effective the second time around because other countries, other companies are going to try to substitute away. If China uses the rare earth leverage, which I think it is now a little bit, there will be alternatives and substitutes. Keyu Jin: China's Economy, Tariffs, Trade, Trump, Communism & Capitalism | Lex Fridman Podcast #477youtube.com · 13 Aug 2025 · 1:06:55 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    And what’s more, you use your leverage once, and that leverage has a half-life. It becomes a lot less effective the second time around because other countries, other companies are going to try to substitute away. If China uses the rare earth leverage, which I think it is now a little bit, there will be alternatives and substitutes.

Trade-offs

Every choice gives something up, so name the cost; and check, because some trade-offs everyone assumes are not real.

Used by 60 others

A country cannot have radical technological breakthroughs and also refuse to tolerate uncomfortably rich people, because the financial system it resents is what funds the innovation.

  1. Keyu Jin Economist specialising in China's economy Do you want technological supremacy and radical breakthroughs? Well, yes. If you do, then you have to tolerate that there are going to be some people who are just going to be uncomfortably rich, like in the United States. You can’t say that you detest the financial system for its greed, but then not accept the fact that it is what fuels innovation, right? Keyu Jin: China's Economy, Tariffs, Trade, Trump, Communism & Capitalism | Lex Fridman Podcast #477youtube.com · 13 Aug 2025 · 0:36:54 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    Do you want technological supremacy and radical breakthroughs? Well, yes. If you do, then you have to tolerate that there are going to be some people who are just going to be uncomfortably rich, like in the United States. You can’t say that you detest the financial system for its greed, but then not accept the fact that it is what fuels innovation, right?