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← People and their mental models

Dax Raad's mental models

2 claims Dax Raad made fit 2 mental models. Most often: Exponential growth, Thought experiments. Everything they said here.

Models they name

Their own words name the idea.

Exponential growth

Growth that doubles looks like nothing for a long time and then like everything; intuition is linear and gets it wrong.

Others who think with this model

Adam FrankAddy OsmaniAlexandr WangAndrej KarpathyDario AmodeiMark Zuckerbergand 2 more

Open the model page

Demand for inference may be growing exponentially while GPU production can only grow linearly, and the tightening happens where those two lines cross.

  1. Dax Raad Builds developer tools — SST, and now OpenCode at Anomaly The demand for inference is growing. So, like I don't think it's linearly growing. I think it might even be exponentially growing. But we haven't made our production of GPUs grow exponentially. That's like kind of a linear process. So as those lines intersect, there's going to be uh tightening. Building OpenCode with Dax Raadyoutube.com · 27 May 2026 · 0:39:33 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    Their wordsThe demand for inference is growing. So, like I don't think it's linearly growing. I think it might even be exponentially growing. But we haven't made our production of GPUs grow exponentially. That's like kind of a linear process. So as those lines intersect, there's going to be uh tightening.

    Where this was said

    Watch from 0:39:33 plays here

    ↗Building OpenCode with Dax Raadyoutube.com

    27 May 2026 · video · 1h 21m · spoken · machine transcript

Models we see in what they say

Our reading: their claim applies the idea without naming it. The claim is theirs; filing it here is ours.

Thought experiments

Test an idea in your head first, by imagining the case that would break it.

Others who think with this model

Shane ParrishJensen HuangSergey Levine

Open the model page

Before product-market fit, coding faster does not help: it is better to think a lot than to swing a lot, and AI does not speed up the thinking.

  1. Dax Raad Builds developer tools — SST, and now OpenCode at Anomaly But I've always thought it's better to think a lot instead of swinging a lot. I think you could you can eliminate a lot of ideas or directions just by, you know, spending a lot of time in your head and with your team talking. Um, obviously AI doesn't speed that part up. Building OpenCode with Dax Raadyoutube.com · 27 May 2026 · 0:04:58 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    Their wordsBut I've always thought it's better to think a lot instead of swinging a lot. I think you could you can eliminate a lot of ideas or directions just by, you know, spending a lot of time in your head and with your team talking. Um, obviously AI doesn't speed that part up.

    Where this was said

    Watch from 0:04:58 plays here

    ↗Building OpenCode with Dax Raadyoutube.com

    27 May 2026 · video · 1h 21m · spoken · machine transcript