Uncertainty about how long a tariff will last, not the rate itself, is what stops anyone from building a factory.

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• A country's large trade deficit in manufactured goods reduces its manufacturing employment below what it would be with balanced trade. PKPaul Krugman7 Sept 2026tariffs
• Cutting off trade with tariffs would force a huge interest-rate spike and probably a debt crisis, because the budget deficit would have to be financed at home. JCJohn H. Cochrane14 Apr 2025tariffs
• Rebuilding American manufacturing is a decades-long educational and cultural project, not something tariffs can do. MHMolson Hart25 Dec 2025tariffs
• Reducing trade deficits and reviving manufacturing would not end the resentment fueling right-wing authoritarian movements. PKPaul Krugman7 Sept 2026tariffs
• Tariff revenue is real but far too small to make a dent in the American deficit. PKPaul Krugman24 Feb 2026tariffs

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