The likeliest bad path is not a coup but sloppiness: AI does everything verifiable well, research races ahead, and the subtle work of keeping AI safe is what gets done badly.

And so basically everything that we can verify reasonably well with some feedback loop, the AIS are doing pretty well on. And that's sufficient to make AR and D go quite fast and to continue. But there's some parts of of developing uh aligned and safe AIs that are more subtle, hard to check, depend on, you know, detailed in the weeds things.