The Iran war appears to have had a triggering effect on financial markets, leading to a reset of market narratives about the future path of Federal Reserve policy.

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• A bank should be managed against the fat tails it can imagine, not against the stress test its regulator hands it. JDJamie Dimon16 Jul 2025interest rates
• A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate. OBOlivier Blanchard1 Jun 2022interest rates
• A fiscal expansion when the economy is already at potential output prompts monetary tightening that dampens or eliminates its effect on output. OBOlivier Blanchard1 Jun 2022interest rates
• A government's debt dynamics are a household's or a company's, except that it can print money and tax -- and those two powers are what change the ending. RDRay Dalio21 Aug 2026interest rates
• A longer average debt maturity protects a government from temporary interest-rate spikes and gives it more time to adjust to permanent rate increases. OBOlivier Blanchard1 Jun 2022interest rates

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