Our readingWhat is a korrent?
The deeper anyone digs into a charity's cost-effectiveness estimate, the more unwarranted optimism they find, so the right prior on giving is a sceptical one.
Drawn from what Holden Karnofsky said
Subjectoptimism
What this subject means
optimism Expecting things to go well: whether it is what gets things built, or a bias that forecasts keep paying for.
On the topicWhy be optimistic?under our view: Optimism is a bias: plans and forecasts keep running too hot