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← Bayesian thinking lets a person use all relevant prior information when making decisions.

11 connected korrents · 9 moments from 15 Jun 2012 to 15 Sept 2026.

Everything filed under mental models mental models Everything filed under design design Everything filed under mathematics mathematics Everything filed under simplicity simplicity Everything filed under humility humility Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: Bayesian thinking lets a person use all relevant prior information when making decisions. Bayesian thinking lets a person use allrelevant prior information when makingdecisions. Last stated 8 years ago 14 May 2018 SP Shane Parrish — holds since 2018-05-14 — tap for who they are Same subject: Probabilistic thinking, estimating the likelihood of outcomes, is one of the best tools for improving the accuracy of decisions. — tap to centre the map on it Probabilistic thinking, estimatingthe likelihood of outcomes, is oneof the best tools for improving theaccuracy of decisions. Last stated 8 years ago 14 May 2018 SP Shane Parrish — holds since 2018-05-14 — tap for who they are Same subject: Thinking in probabilities means roughly identifying what matters, getting a sense of the odds, checking assumptions, and then deciding. — tap to centre the map on it Thinking in probabilities meansroughly identifying what matters,getting a sense of the odds,checking assumptions, and thendeciding. Last stated 8 years ago 14 May 2018 SP Shane Parrish — holds since 2018-05-14 — tap for who they are Same subject: A persistently rising dividend yield eventually forces capital appreciation as the market rerates the stock. — tap to centre the map on it A persistently rising dividend yieldeventually forces capitalappreciation as the market reratesthe stock. Last stated 7 months ago 3 Mar 2026 SB Sanjay Bakshi — holds since 2026-03-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: A proof and an explanation are different things, and a theorem can stay an unsolved expository problem long after it is proved. — tap to centre the map on it A proof and an explanation aredifferent things, and a theorem canstay an unsolved expository problemlong after it is proved. Last stated 3 months ago 30 Jun 2026 GS Grant Sanderson — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are Same subject: A stream of AI-written papers with any error rate at all becomes insufferable, because finding the error costs more than the paper is worth even at ninety-nine percent. — tap to centre the map on it A stream of AI-written papers withany error rate at all becomesinsufferable, because finding theerror costs more than the paper isworth even at ninety-nine percent. Last stated 3 months ago 30 Jun 2026 GS Grant Sanderson — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are Same subject: A CEO grading themselves a failure for their mistakes does not help; every CEO makes thousands of mistakes — tap to centre the map on it A CEO grading themselves a failurefor their mistakes does not help;every CEO makes thousands ofmistakes Last stated 14 years ago 15 Jun 2012 BH Ben Horowitz — holds since 2012-06-15 — tap for who they are Same subject: A designer's assumption about where a component belongs is a personal assumption and does not mean that the market or the users will react to the component that way. — tap to centre the map on it A designer's assumption about wherea component belongs is a personalassumption and does not mean thatthe market or the users will reactto the component that way. Last stated 6 months ago 2 Apr 2026 MS Marvin Schwaibold — holds since 2026-04-02 — tap for who they are Same subject: A designer's PRs should be very small and manageable if the designer is not comfortable reviewing or writing the code themselves. — tap to centre the map on it A designer's PRs should be verysmall and manageable if the designeris not comfortable reviewing orwriting the code themselves. Last stated 4 months ago 26 May 2026 AM Andy Madrick — holds since 2026-05-26 — tap for who they are Same subject: A browser works better as a single window than as multiple separate windows. — tap to centre the map on it A browser works better as a singlewindow than as multiple separatewindows. Last stated 3 weeks ago 15 Sept 2026 CC Chris Coyier — holds since 2026-09-15 — tap for who they are Same subject: A business is more likely to fail from taking on too much complexity than from lacking resources. — tap to centre the map on it A business is more likely to failfrom taking on too much complexitythan from lacking resources. Last stated 8 years ago 29 Sept 2018 TG Tren Griffin — holds since 2018-09-29 — tap for who they are Same subject: A business succeeds through a small number of highly effective distribution channels, not many mediocre ones. — tap to centre the map on it A business succeeds through a smallnumber of highly effectivedistribution channels, not manymediocre ones. Last stated 3 years ago 17 Feb 2024 AW Adam Wiggins — holds since 2024-02-17 — tap for who they are
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At the centre Bayesian thinking lets a person use all relevant prior information when making decisions. Last stated 14 May 2018 · 8 years ago Holds Shane Parrish Read this korrent →