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Vinay Prasad’s Observations and Thoughts

Vinay Prasad · 10 Oct 2026

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Vinay Prasad did not write this page.

Every claim below was made in this piece, quoted word for word and numbered in the order the piece makes them, so you can read it there rather than take our word for it. The sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording. Each quote was checked against a stored copy of the page at build time; where the two differ, the quote is the fact.

  1. If a phase 3 clinical trial is positive, as Tao postulates, but humans do not understand the mechanism of action that would be level one evidence to administer a therapy. Every cancer patient on Earth would want it. Every doctor would give it.
  2. If AI generates a cancer combination cure that no one understands, but passes a phase 3 randomized control trial, there's not a single cancer patient on Earth who would say no thank you.
  3. We have a much deeper understanding than we did a hundred years ago, but we don't know if we have understood 5% or 50% or .05%. . We don't even know what we don't know.

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