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Chartbook 462: China shocked - beyond 1.0 and 2.0 to the "Big One".

Adam Tooze · 29 Jul 2026 · adamtooze.substack.com

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Every claim below was made in this piece, quoted word for word and numbered in the order the piece makes them, so you can read it there rather than take our word for it. The sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording. Each quote was checked against a stored copy of the page at build time; where the two differ, the quote is the fact.

  1. In China shock 1.0 the key target was the US. In China shock 2.0 it is Europe.
  2. The original point of the China Shock 1.0 discourse was not to foreground the unfairness of Chiense competition, so much as the malfunctioning of US policy and societal institutions in the face of concentrated globalization shocks.
  3. China shock 2.0 threatens high status manufactured goods: European cars and engineering.
  4. What China is delivering in the 2020s is an industrial policy shock of global scale.
  5. It wasn’t just the West that drew conclusions from China shock 1.0. Beijing learned from China Shock 1.0 too.