The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don't (The Penguin Press, 2012)

Nate Silver · c. 2012

Nate Silver did not write this page.

Every claim below was made in this book, quoted word for word and numbered in the order the piece makes them, so you can read it there rather than take our word for it. The book prints chapter headings its extracted text does not preserve, so the claims below are in the book's order but not grouped. The sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording. Each quote was checked against a stored copy of the page at build time; where the two differ, the quote is the fact.

Our reading
The signal is the truth; the noise is what distracts us from it

Their wordsThe signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
Our reading
We have a prediction problem and need to admit it

Their wordsWe need to stop, and admit it: we have a prediction problem.
Our reading
The worst failures of prediction usually have a lot in common

Their wordsThe most calamitous failures of prediction usually have a lot in common.
Our reading
Prediction matters because it connects subjective and objective reality

Their wordsPrediction is important because it connects subjective and objective reality.
Our reading
Telling signal from noise takes both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge

Their wordsDistinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge
Our reading
Information grows exponentially but little of it is useful

Their wordsThe volume of information is increasing exponentially. But relatively little of this information is useful
Our reading
We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty

Their wordsWe must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty.
Our reading
Most data is noise, as most of the universe is empty space

Their wordsMost of the data is just noise, as most of the universe is filled with empty space.

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