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OK, I was wrong about Paul Samuelson.

Andrew Gelman · 30 May 2023

A change of mind in this piece

Samuelson's random-walk analogy for stock prices was mathematical showing-off dressed up as a claim about the real world.

I no longer think the main substance of my earlier post was correct.

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  1. I no longer think the main substance of my earlier post was correct.

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