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Tariff Stochasticity

Nat Bullard · 31 Mar 2025

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Every claim below was made in this piece, quoted word for word and numbered in the order the piece makes them, so you can read it there rather than take our word for it. The sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording. Each quote was checked against a stored copy of the page at build time; where the two differ, the quote is the fact.

  1. Our reading

    Tariffs reach even markets normally insulated from trade policy, like electricity.

    Their wordsBut, tariffs are unavoidable, even within the ringfence that is US energy trade, and even within electricity trade more specifically.

  2. Our reading

    Tariff policy is too erratic to reliably predict or plan around.

    Their wordsThe short, and very much un-sweet, vision of a tariff-bound economy is that it is stochastic. We can observe it, measure it, analyze it, but we cannot really predict it.

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