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The Marvels and the Flaws of Intuitive Thinking: Edge Master Class 2011

Daniel Kahneman · c. 2011

The piece opens with

Confidence in a belief reflects the coherence of the story the mind built, not the quality of the evidence

The confidence that people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence, it is not a judgment of the quality of the evidence but it is a judgment of the coherence of the story that the mind has managed to construct.

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  1. The confidence that people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence, it is not a judgment of the quality of the evidence but it is a judgment of the coherence of the story that the mind has managed to construct.
  2. But the subjective sense of confidence can be the same for intuition that arrives from expertise, and for intuitions that arise from heuristics, that arrives from substitution, and asking a different question.

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