International relations has a problem with the future

Henry Farrell · 20 Sept 2026 · programmablemutter.com ↗

3 korrents from this piece

Henry Farrell did not write this page.

Every claim below was made in this piece, quoted word for word and numbered in the order the piece makes them, so you can read it there rather than take our word for it. The sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording. Each quote was checked against a stored copy of the page at build time; where the two differ, the quote is the fact.

Our reading
The feedback loops driving major shifts in international politics are highly destabilizing and difficult to predict in advance.

Their wordsThe feedback loops that drive system change are both "highly destabilizing and difficult to predict."
Our reading
Standard social-science approaches that seek long-term regularities become less useful during periods of systemic transition, until the system stabilizes again.

Their wordsthe value of standard social science approaches, which attempt to discover long term regularities, is likely to depreciate in relative terms until the system settles down again.
Our reading
Building institutions that can incorporate diverse perspectives, adapt flexibly to change, and keep public legitimacy is the central challenge of state capacity today.

Their wordsCreating institutional forms that can incorporate diversity and respond flexibly to a changing environment while maintaining legitimacy in the eyes of citizens is the fundamental project of state capacity that faces us.