11 korrents from this piece
Every claim below was made in this piece, quoted word for word and numbered in the order the piece makes them, so you can read it there rather than take our word for it. The sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording. Each quote was checked against a stored copy of the page at build time; where the two differ, the quote is the fact.
Their wordsThe key difference wasn't policy - it was demographics. Japan's working-age population is shrinking.
Their wordsFor rich countries to maintain their working-age population ratios in 2050 through permanent migration (where each worker brings one dependent), Lant Pritchett estimates they would need to become 40-50% foreign-born.
Their wordsHowever, productive collaborations are not inevitable. Just look at ethnic violence in South-East Asia or Hindu Nationalism in India. Nation-building is really valuable, learning from multi-ethnic, democratic Indonesia.
Their wordsOne more word of caution: the world is a closed and shrinking box. As all populations age, competition for talent will only intensify.
Their wordsEurope’s real problem is that we are not a competitive destination.
Their wordsIt must explain both the global collapse and local variation.
Their wordsNicolas Eberstadt speculates that it’s all about rising autonomy. But that can’t explain why fertility has also plummeted in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and India, where women are often heavily restricted.
Our reading
Government payments and benefits aimed at raising birth rates do not reverse the decline.
Their wordsAcross the OECD, governments are upping their spending. But a wealth of research suggests these fail to mitigate the downward trend.
Their wordsFrom the 1960s, US fertility fell primarily due to fewer births among couples. In that context, baby bonuses might raise fertility. But today, the major contributing factor is the decline of coupling.
Their wordsSlurs of ‘childless cat ladies’ usually target female graduates, but in the US, Sweden and Finland the real decline is happening among people with less education.
Their wordsMy suspicion is that massive improvement in quality of online entertainment crowd out socialising and development of social skills, possibly hurting relationship formation as well as desire for children within marriage.