Why is Fertility Collapsing, Globally?

Alice Evans · 1 Nov 2024

Others here said this too

Something is broken in how people pair up in the West, and that shortage of couples and marriages, not money, is why there are too few children.

Their wordsFrom the 1960s, US fertility fell primarily due to fewer births among couples. In that context, baby bonuses might raise fertility. But today, the major contributing factor is the decline of coupling.

Also said by David Heinemeier Hansson, Lyman Stone

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11 korrents from this piece ↓

Alice Evans did not write this page.

Every claim below was made in this piece, quoted word for word and numbered in the order the piece makes them, so you can read it there rather than take our word for it. The sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording. Each quote was checked against a stored copy of the page at build time; where the two differ, the quote is the fact.

Our reading
Japan's decades of stagnation were caused by its shrinking working-age population rather than by its monetary policy.

Their wordsThe key difference wasn't policy - it was demographics. Japan's working-age population is shrinking.
Our reading
Immigration cannot hold a rich country's working-age population steady, because doing so would require it to become 40 to 50 per cent foreign-born.

Their wordsFor rich countries to maintain their working-age population ratios in 2050 through permanent migration (where each worker brings one dependent), Lant Pritchett estimates they would need to become 40-50% foreign-born.
Our reading
A multi-ethnic society only gets the benefits of diversity if it deliberately builds a shared national identity.

Their wordsHowever, productive collaborations are not inevitable. Just look at ethnic violence in South-East Asia or Hindu Nationalism in India. Nation-building is really valuable, learning from multi-ethnic, democratic Indonesia.
Our reading
As every population ages, countries will have to compete for migrants rather than choose freely among them.

Their wordsOne more word of caution: the world is a closed and shrinking box. As all populations age, competition for talent will only intensify.
Our reading
Europe is losing the competition for talented migrants because it is not an attractive enough destination.

Their wordsEurope’s real problem is that we are not a competitive destination.
Our reading
Any theory of the fall in birth rates must explain both the worldwide collapse and the differences between countries, and most theories explain only one.

Their wordsIt must explain both the global collapse and local variation.
Our reading
Rising female autonomy cannot be the cause of falling birth rates, because births have collapsed just as fast in countries where women's freedom is heavily restricted.

Their wordsNicolas Eberstadt speculates that it’s all about rising autonomy. But that can’t explain why fertility has also plummeted in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and India, where women are often heavily restricted.
Our reading
Government payments and benefits aimed at raising birth rates do not reverse the decline.

Their wordsAcross the OECD, governments are upping their spending. But a wealth of research suggests these fail to mitigate the downward trend.
Our reading
Something is broken in how people pair up in the West, and that shortage of couples and marriages, not money, is why there are too few children.

Their wordsFrom the 1960s, US fertility fell primarily due to fewer births among couples. In that context, baby bonuses might raise fertility. But today, the major contributing factor is the decline of coupling.
Our reading
The fall in childbearing in rich countries is concentrated among the less educated, not among female graduates.

Their wordsSlurs of ‘childless cat ladies’ usually target female graduates, but in the US, Sweden and Finland the real decline is happening among people with less education.
Our reading
Personalised online entertainment has got good enough to crowd out socialising, and with it the forming of couples.

Their wordsMy suspicion is that massive improvement in quality of online entertainment crowd out socialising and development of social skills, possibly hurting relationship formation as well as desire for children within marriage.

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