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In Praise of Guessing

Christina Wodtke · 30 Jan 2026

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  1. The word “guess” makes people deeply uncomfortable. We’ve been trained to believe that business is about certainty, about knowing things. About data-driven decisions. But early in any endeavor—whether setting OKRs for a new initiative or estimating how long a feature will take to build—you don’t have data. You have hunches. You have analogies. You have experience with vaguely similar situations.

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