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Time's Up for AI Policy

Miles Brundage · 20 Dec 2024

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Advanced AI is close enough that the preparations which take years have to be started now, whichever end of the expert range you believe.

Their wordsIf there are ways that you can help improve the governance of AI in these and other countries, you should be doing it now or in the next few months, not planning for ways to have an impact several years from now.

Also said by Helen Toner

Read the piece on milesbrundage.substack.com ↗

4 korrents from this piece ↓

Miles Brundage did not write this page.

Every claim below was made in this piece, quoted word for word and numbered in the order the piece makes them, so you can read it there rather than take our word for it. The sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording. Each quote was checked against a stored copy of the page at build time; where the two differ, the quote is the fact.

  1. Our reading

    AI that exceeds human performance in nearly every cognitive domain is almost certain to be built within the next few years.

    Their wordsAI that exceeds human performance in nearly every cognitive domain is almost certain to be built and deployed in the next few years.

  2. Our reading

    Advanced AI is close enough that the preparations which take years have to be started now, whichever end of the expert range you believe.

    Their wordsIf there are ways that you can help improve the governance of AI in these and other countries, you should be doing it now or in the next few months, not planning for ways to have an impact several years from now.

  3. Our reading

    There is no private evidence behind frontier-lab confidence in fast AI progress; the evidence is public and outsiders have simply not absorbed it.

    Their wordsThere is no secret insight that frontier AI companies have which explains why people who work there are so bullish about AI capabilities improving rapidly in the next few years.

  4. Our reading

    Once model weights leave their owner's control the loss is irreversible, which is why securing them is the precondition for governing AI at all.

    Their wordsIf you can’t control where AI weights go (i.e., prevent leaking or theft), you can’t govern the technology.

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