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Predictions Scorecard, 2025 January 01

Rodney Brooks · 1 Jan 2025

A change of mind in this piece

Cars people own will double as driverless taxis when the owner is not using them, in ten major US cities, some time from the mid-2020s.

No longer holdsThis is unlikely to happen in the first half of this century.

Read the piece on rodneybrooks.com ↗

4 korrents from this piece · 1 of them a turn ↓

Rodney Brooks did not write this page.

Every claim below was made in this piece, quoted word for word and numbered in the order the piece makes them, so you can read it there rather than take our word for it. The sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording. Each quote was checked against a stored copy of the page at build time; where the two differ, the quote is the fact.

  1. Our reading

    Actual self-driving turned out to be far harder than almost everyone believed it would be.

    Their wordsActual self-driving is now generally accepted to be much harder than every one believed.

  2. Our reading

    Cars people own will double as driverless taxis when the owner is not using them, in ten major US cities, some time from the mid-2020s.

    No longer holdsThis is unlikely to happen in the first half of this century.
    Their words nowI got suckered by his hype.

  3. Our reading

    The driverless taxi services that exist arrived years earlier than expected but are not what was promised: remote humans are in the loop.

    Their wordsWaymo now has a service that looks and feels like this in San Francisco, 8 years earlier than I predicted. But it is not what every one was expecting. There are humans in the loop.

  4. Our reading

    Electric cars will not reach 30% of US sales by 2027; the forecasts that looked pessimistic in 2018 were still too optimistic.

    Their wordsQ3 2024 had the rate 8.9% so there is no way it can reach 30% in 2027. I was way too optimistic at a time when EV enthusiasts thought I was horribly pessimistic.

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The other pieces are the ones whose claims are worded most like this one's. That measures language, not agreement: they may argue the opposite.