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Their wordsRegardless of whether model scaling will continue, industry leaders' flip flopping on this issue shows the folly of trusting their forecasts. They are not significantly better informed than the rest of us, and their narratives are heavily influenced by their vested interests.
Their wordsThe connection between capability improvements and AI's social or economic impacts is extremely weak. The bottlenecks for impact are the pace of product development and the rate of adoption, not AI capabilities.
Their wordsIt is impossible to predict whether progress in AI capabilities will slow down. In fact, forget prediction - reasonable people can have very different opinions on whether AI progress has already slowed down, because they can interpret the evidence very differently.
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