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← People and their mental models

Michael Mauboussin's mental models

2 claims Michael Mauboussin made fit 2 mental models. Most often: Cognitive biases, Probabilistic thinking. Everything they said here.

Models they name

Their own words name the idea.

Cognitive biases

Your mind jumps to conclusions and defends them; look for the evidence against you and use checklists.

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Confirmation bias, seeking confirming information and dismissing the rest, is an even harder bias to circumvent

  1. Michael Mauboussin Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global And the second one I think is even more difficult, which is confirmation bias. Which is once we’ve made up our minds about something, we tend to seek information that confirms our point of view, and dismiss, discount, disavow information that does not. The Tim Ferriss Show transcript: Michael Mauboussin (2023)tim.blog · 3 Mar 2023All korrents from this piece
    And the second one I think is even more difficult, which is confirmation bias. Which is once we’ve made up our minds about something, we tend to seek information that confirms our point of view, and dismiss, discount, disavow information that does not.

Models we see in what they say

Our reading: their claim applies the idea without naming it. The claim is theirs; filing it here is ours.

Probabilistic thinking

Think in odds, not certainties, and bet heavily only when the odds are clearly yours.

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People tend to think they understand the future better than they actually do

  1. Michael Mauboussin Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global The first is overconfidence. We tend to think we understand the future better than we actually do. The Tim Ferriss Show transcript: Michael Mauboussin (2023)tim.blog · 3 Mar 2023All korrents from this piece
    The first is overconfidence. We tend to think we understand the future better than we actually do.