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← People and their mental models

Derek Thompson's mental models

2 claims Derek Thompson made fit 2 mental models. Most often: Exponential growth, Power laws. Everything they said here.

Models we see in what they say

Our reading: their claim applies the idea without naming it. The claim is theirs; filing it here is ours.

Exponential growth

Growth that doubles looks like nothing for a long time and then like everything; intuition is linear and gets it wrong.

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Frontier AI models' cyberattack capabilities are doubling every few months, and that pace is accelerating.

  1. Derek Thompson Writer and podcaster; co-author of Abundance with Ezra… An analysis by the AI Security Institute found that the capabilities of frontier models (i.e., from OpenAI and Anthropic) are roughly doubling every few months, and this doubling rate has actually gotten faster over time. How to Survive the AI Cyberpocalypsederekthompson.org · 19 Aug 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsAn analysis by the AI Security Institute found that the capabilities of frontier models (i.e., from OpenAI and Anthropic) are roughly doubling every few months, and this doubling rate has actually gotten faster over time.

    ↗How to Survive the AI Cyberpocalypsederekthompson.org

    19 Aug 2026

Power laws

In many things a few cases account for most of the result, so the average misleads and the outlier decides.

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