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← The only way to know what a model can do after running for a month is to actually run it for a month.
17 connected korrents · 15 moments from 3 Oct 2012 to 21 Oct 2026.
Everything filed under benchmarks
benchmarks
Everything filed under LLMs
LLMs
Everything filed under measuring intelligence
measuring intelligence
Everything filed under OpenAI
OpenAI
Everything filed under ARC-AGI
ARC-AGI
Everything filed under scaling laws
scaling laws Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: The only way to know what a model can do after running for a month is to actually run it for a month. The only way to know what a model can do after running for a month is to actually run it for a month. Last stated 4 months ago
26 Jun 2026
NB
Noam Brown — holds since 2026-06-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Running a model until its performance plateaus is no longer a usable evaluation rule, because a well-scaffolded model keeps improving for weeks. — tap to centre the map on it Running a model until its performance plateaus is no longer a usable evaluation rule, because a well-scaffolded model keeps improving for weeks. Last stated 4 months ago
26 Jun 2026
NB
Noam Brown — holds since 2026-06-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A model's capability is now a function of how much money you spend on it, so asking what a model can do means nothing until you name a budget. — tap to centre the map on it A model's capability is now a function of how much money you spend on it, so asking what a model can do means nothing until you name a budget. Last stated 4 months ago
26 Jun 2026
NB
Noam Brown — holds since 2026-06-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The way to find what a model can do is to hand it tasks slightly harder than you believe it can handle. — tap to centre the map on it The way to find what a model can do is to hand it tasks slightly harder than you believe it can handle. Last stated 3 months ago
27 Jul 2026
BC
Boris Cherny — holds since 2026-07-27 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Before building on a gap in the general models, work out whether that gap survives six months or three years. — tap to centre the map on it Before building on a gap in the general models, work out whether that gap survives six months or three years. Last stated 3 months ago
30 Jul 2026
JD
Jeff Dean — holds since 2026-07-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A good framework for designing products is to design for six months out: presume model capabilities will get better and build for the world you would then be in. — tap to centre the map on it A good framework for designing products is to design for six months out: presume model capabilities will get better and build for the world you would then be in. Last stated a month ago
9 Sept 2026
EB
Ed Bayes — holds since 2026-09-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Models will not learn to write maintainable code from today’s benchmarks, because the cost of bad architecture cannot be measured by running the unit tests — it arrives three to six months later. — tap to centre the map on it Models will not learn to write maintainable code from today’s benchmarks, because the cost of bad architecture cannot be measured by running the unit tests — it arrives three to six months later. Last stated 3 months ago
15 Jul 2026
DH
Dex Horthy — holds since 2026-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Views about AI models formed 4-6 months ago should be reconsidered. — tap to centre the map on it Views about AI models formed 4-6 months ago should be reconsidered. Last stated 3 weeks ago
1 Oct 2026
TB
Thorsten Ball — holds since 2026-10-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI products should probably aim at where the models will be in two to three months, neither anchored in the present nor futuristic and unusable. — tap to centre the map on it AI products should probably aim at where the models will be in two to three months, neither anchored in the present nor futuristic and unusable. Last stated a month ago
10 Sept 2026
TS
Tara Seshan — holds since 2026-09-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Combining an avocado and a chair into one image is evidence a model conceptually understands both, not that it memorised pictures of them. — tap to centre the map on it Combining an avocado and a chair into one image is evidence a model conceptually understands both, not that it memorised pictures of them. Last stated 2 months ago
12 Aug 2026
CF
Chelsea Finn — holds since 2026-08-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Passing ARC-AGI does not amount to achieving AGI: o3 still fails on some very easy tasks, indicating fundamental differences from human intelligence. — tap to centre the map on it Passing ARC-AGI does not amount to achieving AGI: o3 still fails on some very easy tasks, indicating fundamental differences from human intelligence. Last stated 2 years ago
20 Dec 2024
FC
François Chollet — holds since 2024-12-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus can measure human-like general fluid intelligence and enable fair comparisons between AI systems and humans. — tap to centre the map on it The Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus can measure human-like general fluid intelligence and enable fair comparisons between AI systems and humans. Last stated 7 years ago
5 Nov 2019
FC
François Chollet — holds since 2019-11-05 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A true artificial general intelligence cannot exist without being recognized as a moral subject. — tap to centre the map on it A true artificial general intelligence cannot exist without being recognized as a moral subject. Last stated a year ago
10 Jun 2025
SH
Samuel Hammond — holds since 2025-06-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AGI research made no progress in its first six decades. — tap to centre the map on it AGI research made no progress in its first six decades. Last stated 14 years ago
3 Oct 2012
DD
David Deutsch — holds since 2012-10-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: An AI that cannot work out new physics has not equalled human intelligence, let alone surpassed it, because humans have worked out new physics. — tap to centre the map on it An AI that cannot work out new physics has not equalled human intelligence, let alone surpassed it, because humans have worked out new physics. Last stated 3 years ago
9 Nov 2023
EM
Elon Musk — holds since 2023-11-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A PHP vulnerability found with GPT-5.6 Sol will cause havoc this week. — tap to centre the map on it A PHP vulnerability found with GPT-5.6 Sol will cause havoc this week. Last stated 2 days ago
21 Oct 2026
PS
Peter Steinberger — holds since 2026-10-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. — tap to centre the map on it A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. Last stated 3 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers. — tap to centre the map on it Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers. Last stated 3 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
At the centre
The only way to know what a model can do after running for a month is to actually run it for a month.
Holds Read this korrent →
Running a model until its performance plateaus is no longer a usable evaluation rule, because a well-scaffolded model keeps improving for weeks.
Holds
A model's capability is now a function of how much money you spend on it, so asking what a model can do means nothing until you name a budget.
Holds
The way to find what a model can do is to hand it tasks slightly harder than you believe it can handle.
Holds
Before building on a gap in the general models, work out whether that gap survives six months or three years.
Holds
A good framework for designing products is to design for six months out: presume model capabilities will get better and build for the world you would then be in.
Holds
Models will not learn to write maintainable code from today’s benchmarks, because the cost of bad architecture cannot be measured by running the unit tests — it arrives three to six months later.
Holds
Views about AI models formed 4-6 months ago should be reconsidered.
Holds
AI products should probably aim at where the models will be in two to three months, neither anchored in the present nor futuristic and unusable.
Holds
Combining an avocado and a chair into one image is evidence a model conceptually understands both, not that it memorised pictures of them.
Holds
Passing ARC-AGI does not amount to achieving AGI: o3 still fails on some very easy tasks, indicating fundamental differences from human intelligence.
Holds
The Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus can measure human-like general fluid intelligence and enable fair comparisons between AI systems and humans.
Holds
A true artificial general intelligence cannot exist without being recognized as a moral subject.
Holds
AGI research made no progress in its first six decades.
Holds
An AI that cannot work out new physics has not equalled human intelligence, let alone surpassed it, because humans have worked out new physics.
Holds
A PHP vulnerability found with GPT-5.6 Sol will cause havoc this week.
Holds
A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests.
Holds
Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers.
Holds