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Plateauing CO2 emissions have slowed atmospheric growth

Zeke Hausfather · 9 Jun 2026 · theclimatebrink.com

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  1. But broadly speaking we expect atmospheric CO2 to keep growing until we cut emissions pretty substantially (e.g. to <50% of current levels).
  2. Either way, atmospheric CO2 is better seen as a lagging rather than leading indicator of changes in emissions, as it is harder to see the effects of emissions reductions on concentrations over shorter time periods.
  3. That being said, we still expect some weakening of carbon sinks in a warmer world - something we have started to see in the data.