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Acemoglu & Restrepo, "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets" (NBER working paper 23285)

Daron Acemoglu, Pascual Restrepo · 1 Mar 2017 · nber.org

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In plain words

Adding industrial robots from 1990 to 2007 cut local US jobs and wages—one more robot per thousand workers lowered employment by 0.18-0.34 points and pay by 0.25-0.5 percent. That damage is distinct from Chinese or Mexican imports, offshoring, and other computers or machines. It reports local-market estimates built on robots competing with people for tasks, using each area’s industry mix and national robot adoption, and checks those areas were not already declining before 1990.

Our summary of the paper, not the authors' words — written to be readable without the field's vocabulary, from the stored copy of the paper and nothing else. Drafted with xai:grok-4.5 and checked by a person. The authors' own sentences are the quotes below.

Daron Acemoglu, Pascual Restrepo did not write this page.

Every claim below was made in this piece, quoted word for word and numbered in the order the piece makes them, so you can read it there rather than take our word for it. The sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording. Each quote was checked against a stored copy of the page at build time; where the two differ, the quote is the fact.

  1. As robots and other computer-assisted technologies take over tasks previously performed by labor, there is increasing concern about the future of jobs and wages.
  2. As robots and other computer-assisted technologies take over tasks previously performed by labor, there is increasing concern about the future of jobs and wages.
  3. Using a model in which robots compete against human labor in the production of different tasks, we show that robots may reduce employment and wages
  4. Using a model in which robots compete against human labor in the production of different tasks, we show that robots may reduce employment and wages
  5. Using this approach, we estimate large and robust negative effects of robots on employment and wages across commuting zones.
  6. Using this approach, we estimate large and robust negative effects of robots on employment and wages across commuting zones.