Post 50: Good Research Takes are Not Sufficient for Good Strategic Takes

Neel Nanda · 22 Mar 2025

Neel Nanda did not write this page.

Every claim below was made in this piece, quoted word for word and numbered in the order the piece makes them, so you can read it there rather than take our word for it. The sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording. Each quote was checked against a stored copy of the page at build time; where the two differ, the quote is the fact.

Our reading
A strong track record in a technical field is only weak evidence that someone has good strategic judgment about AGI.

Their wordsHaving a good research track record is some evidence of good big-picture takes about AGI, but it's weak evidence.
Our reading
People's opinions are shaped more by who they talk to most than by what is actually true.

Their wordsThough note that people's opinions are often substantially reflections of the people they speak to most, rather than what's actually true.

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The other pieces are the ones whose claims are worded most like this one's. That measures language, not agreement: they may argue the opposite.