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Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change (with 1 co-authors)

Adam Mastroianni · 7 Mar 2022 · doi.org

4 korrents from this paper

In plain words

People badly misjudge how Americans' opinions on big social issues have shifted over decades, usually thinking there's been far more change toward liberal views than the polls actually show. These mistakes can lend support to policies people might reject if they knew the real history of opinions, and can even turn imaginary trends into real ones. It reports survey results matching people's guesses about long-term attitude shifts against actual polling data, and finds the errors stem from a shared stereotype that today is much more liberal than the past.

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  1. These misperceptions may bedevil people's efforts to understand and change their social worlds, distort the democratic process, and turn imaginary trends into real ones.
  2. Our findings suggest that the national discourse around contentious social issues, policies resulting from that discourse, and perhaps the opinions that drive discourse in the first place would be very different if people better understood how attitudes have and have not changed.
  3. Overall, our findings suggest that widely shared stereotypes of the past lead people to misperceive attitude change, and these misperceptions can lend legitimacy to policies that people may not actually prefer.
  4. Imaginary trends could thus spuriously shape people's real beliefs and behaviors.