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Are the Polls Accurate? (Are We Doing This Again?)

Josh Marshall · 23 Sept 2026

Read the piece on talkingpointsmemo.com ↗

3 korrents from this piece ↓

Josh Marshall did not write this page.

Every claim below was made in this piece, quoted word for word and numbered in the order the piece makes them, so you can read it there rather than take our word for it. The sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording. Each quote was checked against a stored copy of the page at build time; where the two differ, the quote is the fact.

  1. Our reading

    Small polling errors can produce large electoral effects.

    Their wordsAnother key thing about understanding polling error is that relatively small polling errors can have big electoral effects.

  2. Our reading

    A president typically lets embattled candidates distance themselves as needed during a difficult political environment.

    Their wordsPresidents let candidates do what they have to in a rough environment.

  3. Our reading

    Massive campaign spending has limited effect on election outcomes in a lopsided political environment.

    Their wordsMy hunch is that even massive sums of spending don't get you that far in this kind of environment.

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