Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Random House, 2005 edition; copyright 2004)

Nassim Nicholas Taleb · c. 2004

Nassim Nicholas Taleb did not write this page.

Every claim below was made in this book, quoted word for word and numbered in the order the piece makes them, so you can read it there rather than take our word for it. The book prints chapter headings its extracted text does not preserve, so the claims below are in the book's order but not grouped. The sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording. Each quote was checked against a stored copy of the page at build time; where the two differ, the quote is the fact.

Our reading
Heroes are heroic in behavior, not because they won or lost

Their wordsHeroes are heroes because they are heroic in behavior, not because they won or lost.
Our reading
Probability is accepting the limits of our knowledge and dealing with our ignorance

Their wordsProbability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignorance.
Our reading
Mild success can come from skill and labor; wild success comes from variance

Their wordsMild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance.
Our reading
Not being rational, one is prone to drown in randomness

Their wordsMy problem is that I am not rational and I am extremely prone to drown in randomness and to incur emotional torture.

Keep reading

More from Nassim Nicholas Taleb