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Dwarkesh Podcast

Dwarkesh Patel · 8 Sept 2026

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  1. We find that from 2019 to 2025, 3.24x more compute efficiency gains have come from data improvements rather than model improvements (12.0x for data and 3.7x for models), at the 1e19 FLOPs compute budget
  2. We find that the gains from data and model improvements are mostly independent and don't interact (i.e. realizing the gains from some model improvement doesn't require a specific training datapile, or vice versa).
  3. In fact, aggressive data curation is even more harmful once you take into account that frontier models are up to 100x overtrained relative to Chinchilla optimal, in order to minimize the inference compute used for RL and for deployment.

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