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Momentum is Not a Moat

Dan Hockenmaier · 15 Sept 2026

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Dan Hockenmaier did not write this page.

Every claim below was made in this piece, quoted word for word and numbered in the order the piece makes them, so you can read it there rather than take our word for it. The sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording. Each quote was checked against a stored copy of the page at build time; where the two differ, the quote is the fact.

  1. Our reading

    Rapid AI adoption makes early numbers look good and raises the risk that startups end up without a moat.

    Their wordsThe risk of this outcome is ratcheting up, because rapid AI adoption is making everyone’s early numbers look good, attracting huge rounds and extreme competition in the process. When the tide goes out, who among Lovable, Suno, ElevenLabs, Harvey, Gamma, and the labs themselves is going to be swimming without a moat?

  2. Our reading

    Distribution is not success in itself, only the first step in building a moat.

    Their wordsDistribution isn’t success in itself, but an opportunity to capture it. It’s the very first step in building a moat.

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