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The tokenmaxxing hangover

Ayo Omojola · 2 Sept 2026

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  1. Downstream, any task that needs determinism and stability (and needs to be low cost) ultimately needs to be rolled to an open source or open weight model, and ultimately on a cloud you own or hardware you control.
  2. We think of routing today and evals as separate problems, but I believe that they’re really the same problem expressed in different ways. Model routing tools today optimize primarily for cost. They’re helping you pick the cheapest tool for the job.
  3. It’s likely that Deepseek or Moonshot (or some other open weight lab) will launch a frontier model that meaningfully beats the closed source/US frontier labs on a material axis beyond cost. Stated differently, it is likely that in the next year, the leading model available to the public will be an open weight one, at least for a time.

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