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Olivier Blanchard's mental models

3 claims Olivier Blanchard made fit 2 mental models. Most often: Second-order thinking, Margin of safety. Everything they said here.

Models we see in what they say

Our reading: their claim applies the idea without naming it. The claim is theirs; filing it here is ours.

Second-order thinking

Ask "and then what?": follow a decision past its first effect to the ones that come after.

Used by 92 others

Canceling government bonds held by a central bank creates no fiscal space, because the reduction in government interest payments is exactly offset by an equal reduction in the profits the central bank remits to the government.

  1. Olivier Blanchard Economist; former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund The proposition is that the cancellation of the bonds held by the central bank would decrease the amount of interest payments and thus the debt service of governments. And indeed, it would. But it would have another effect—namely, to decrease the revenues of the central bank and thus the profits that the central bank turns in to the government. This second effect would be exactly of the same size as the first, and the net effect on the government budget constraint would be equal to zero. Fiscal Policy under Low Interest Ratesdirect.mit.edu · 1 Jun 2022All korrents from this piece
    The proposition is that the cancellation of the bonds held by the central bank would decrease the amount of interest payments and thus the debt service of governments. And indeed, it would. But it would have another effect—namely, to decrease the revenues of the central bank and thus the profits that the central bank turns in to the government. This second effect would be exactly of the same size as the first, and the net effect on the government budget constraint would be equal to zero.

A fiscal expansion when the economy is already at potential output prompts monetary tightening that dampens or eliminates its effect on output.

  1. Olivier Blanchard Economist; former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund If a fiscal expansion takes place when output is already at potential, monetary policy is likely to tighten, leading to higher interest rates and thus a smaller effect or even no effect of the fiscal expansion on output. Fiscal Policy under Low Interest Ratesdirect.mit.edu · 1 Jun 2022All korrents from this piece
    If a fiscal expansion takes place when output is already at potential, monetary policy is likely to tighten, leading to higher interest rates and thus a smaller effect or even no effect of the fiscal expansion on output.

Margin of safety

Leave room for being wrong, because sometimes you will be.

Used by 24 others

A longer average debt maturity protects a government from temporary interest-rate spikes and gives it more time to adjust to permanent rate increases.

  1. Olivier Blanchard Economist; former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund A longer maturity of debt protects the government from a temporary increase in the short run interest rate, and it gives it more time to adjust to a permanent increase. Fiscal Policy under Low Interest Ratesdirect.mit.edu · 1 Jun 2022All korrents from this piece
    A longer maturity of debt protects the government from a temporary increase in the short run interest rate, and it gives it more time to adjust to a permanent increase.